Quantum Dots: The Tiny Materials That Could Fuel Big Tech and the next AI models

One of the things I’ve always loved about research is when you discover something that's not only scientifically interesting but ALSO economically game-changing. It’s one thing to make an incredible material in a lab that has useful properties. It’s another thing to make it cheaply, at scale, and with potential to change the world.

That brings us to today’s focus: a new class of semiconductors called quantum dots (QDs). Tiny crystals. This has huge potential. The global QD market was valued at around $10.64 billion in 2024, and is projected to grow to $54.75 billion by 2034. That yields a CAGR of 17.8 % across that period which is driven by demand in displays, imaging, and sensor technologies. QD-based materials are at the heart of these technologies.

As someone who spent a huge chunk of my PhD working with quantum dots, I found them exciting for a lot of reasons. But there was one thing which stood out: they were incredibly easy to make. Seriously, they were so simple that even a person with no chemistry knowledge could make them. I could cook up high-performing semiconductors in a simple fume hood using off-the-shelf lab glassware and widely-available starting materials.

Compare that to conventional semiconductors like silicon, which require high temperatures, ultra-clean rooms, and multi-million-dollar equipment to grow and process. Furthermore, the processing of these conventional semiconductors require people with expertise knowledge. This is why the accessibility of QDs fascinated me. Imagine a future where anyone, anywhere, can manufacture advanced semiconductors using much simpler tools. That’s something conventional materials, due to their cost, rigid processing requirements, and complex infrastructure needs, simply can’t match.

🔍 The beauty of quantum dot tech? They can be processed using existing semiconductor fabrication lines. That means lower transition costs, faster market entry, and wider adoption. That sounds like a dream scenario for investors, manufacturers, and researchers alike.

🧠 Why It Matters Right Now

In a previous issue, I looked at the rise of infrared technologies. But there is another key driver which is now pushing QDs, and other cheaper sensing technologies, toward the mainstream. That is the explosion of AI and machine learning. As systems become more data-hungry, there's growing pressure on the hardware to keep up. Sensors made with cheap, scalable materials like QDs can help generate the vast data streams needed which can result in better AI models for different tasks.

Combine this with AI inference on a device, for example on a drone, wearable, or autonomous vehicle, and you can get real-time analysis from sensors that are smarter, smaller, and much cheaper to deploy. The insights would likely be more useful due to the greater amount of data available. This opens up applications like:

• Smart medical diagnostics in remote clinics

• Low-cost air and gas quality monitoring in agriculture

• Thermal imaging in consumer electronics for health tracking

And it’s not just speculative. Startups are already trialling these concepts.

Timing is crucial here. Factors such as supply chain diversification, rising demand for sustainable materials, and competitive pressure to cut sensor costs are all pushing the industry toward new materials like QDs. Regulations around rare earths and heavy metals are also driving the need for alternative semiconductor chemistries, and QDs could fit that role if toxicity hurdles are cleared.

📈 The Market Opportunity

With their flexibility and low cost, QDs are positioned to disrupt:

• Displays (e.g. QLED TVs)

• Infrared cameras and sensors

• Solar cells and photodetectors

• Biomedical imaging and diagnostics

Analysts estimate the market will more than triple by 2030, especially as QDs transition from niche uses to mass-produced, consumer-facing devices.

⚠️ The Tradeoffs

Of course, it’s not all upside. QD materials still face important challenges:

• Toxicity: Some QDs are cadmium or lead based. This likely presents both environmental and regulatory hurdles. However, there is ongoing research for less-toxic alternative.

• Stability: Long-term performance degrades in air and light, especially for IR applications

• Commercial maturity: Some QD-based IR sensors are still being worked on in the lab or prototype stage. This will take time to transition these technologies into a wide-reaching commercial setting.

There are also rival materials. Organic semiconductors, as an example, offer better flexibility, biocompatibility, and even room-temperature processing. They also offer the advantage of being cheap to make, similar to QD materials. They're gaining attention for similar use cases and may leapfrog QDs in some domains , particularly in wearables and soft electronics.

🧩 My Take

Here’s what I’m thinking as I watch this field unfold:

• Market forecasts often assume linear scale-up — but QD manufacturing still faces reproducibility and environmental barriers. There is also less consideration on how other competing technologies, such as those made from organic semiconductors, may take a portion of the market.

• Performance gains in lab settings don’t always translate into robust, manufacturable devices — particularly for infrared sensors, where lifetime and reliability are key.

• That said, the ease of fabrication and chemistry customisation unlock design spaces that conventional semiconductors can’t touch. For example, multi-spectral sensors on flexible films, or printable thermal cameras on drones.

One underestimated impact? The role QDs could play in making hardware more accessible and innovative. If we lower the barrier to making powerful sensors, then more people in underserved regions can develop local solutions to big problems. That’s a long-term social and economic multiplier that few are factoring into their projections.

🧵 Final Thoughts

Quantum dots are one of the most exciting semiconductor innovations that I have worked with. Their performance and potential to lower the cost of participation in cutting-edge tech is something I believe will create impact.

If we can solve the toxicity and stability issues, I believe QDs could be foundational to the next generation of consumer and industrial sensing.

Thank you for reading. If this topic resonates with you, forward it to someone who’s curious about where science meets real-world opportunity.

Until the next time,
Qasim Ibraheeme